https://doi.org/10.37955/cs.v8i1.337
Received March 24, 2023/ Approved July, 2, 2023 Pages: 52-63
eISSN: 2600-5743
Insecurity and sales: impact on
Holcim Cement, Quevedo
Inseguridad y ventas: impacto en Cemento Holcim,
Quevedo
Gustavo Eduardo Cotto Yépez
Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo. Ecuador
gcottoy@uteq.edu.ec
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-6499-0687
Juan Carlos Cano Intriago
Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo. Ecuador
E-mail: jcano@uteq.edu.ec
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5376-4202
Mariasol Belén Culcay Véliz
Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo
mculcay@uteq.edu.ec
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9330-8826
ABSTRACT
Holcim, a global leader in the cement industry, has faced unexpected
challenges in Quevedo during 2023. Despite its successful track record
in Ecuador since 1974, a downward trend in sales has emerged, mainly
attributed to increasing insecurity affecting daily life. The research
focuses on exploring how insecurity affects Holcim's sales in Quevedo,
a key city for the company. The methodology adopted is quantitative,
seeking to accurately measure the perceptions of customers and
merchants. Data collection is carried out using a statistical approach
to objectively describe the reality of security and commercial activity
in Quevedo. Preliminary results reveal a decrease in customer traffic,
indicating that security concerns have affected visits to retail outlets.
Night trade has experienced a significant reduction and distrust in
construction sites has led to a drop in sales of cement and other
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materials. In addition, Holcim's reputation is negatively affected,
leading to a loss of consumer confidence and loyalty. These findings
underscore the complex interconnection between insecurity and
Holcim's sales in Quevedo, pointing to the need for effective strategies
to address the economic challenges arising from the current security
crisis in Ecuador.
RESUMEN
Holcim, líder global en la industria del cemento, ha enfrentado
desafíos inesperados en Quevedo durante el 2023. A pesar de su
trayectoria exitosa en Ecuador desde 1974, una tendencia a la baja en
las ventas ha surgido, atribuida principalmente a una creciente
inseguridad que afecta la cotidianidad. La investigación se centra en
explorar cómo la inseguridad incide en las ventas de Holcim en
Quevedo, una ciudad clave para la empresa. La metodología adoptada
es cuantitativa, buscando medir de manera precisa las percepciones de
clientes y comerciantes. La recopilación de datos se realiza mediante
un enfoque estadístico para describir objetivamente la realidad de la
seguridad y la actividad comercial en Quevedo. Los resultados
preliminares revelan una disminución del en la afluencia de clientes,
indicando que la preocupación por la seguridad ha afectado las visitas
a los puntos de venta. El comercio nocturno ha experimentado una
reducción significativa y la desconfianza en las zonas de construcción
ha llevado a una baja en las ventas de cemento y otros materiales.
Además, la reputación de Holcim se ve afectada negativamente,
generando pérdida de confianza y lealtad de los consumidores. Estos
hallazgos subrayan la compleja interconexión entre la inseguridad y
las ventas de Holcim en Quevedo, señalando la necesidad de
estrategias efectivas para abordar los desafíos económicos derivados
de la actual crisis de seguridad en Ecuador.
Keywords / Palabras clave
insecurity, sales, Holcim, impact, Quevedo
inseguridad, ventas, Holcim, impacto, Quevedo
Introduction
A leader in the cement industry, Holcim's global presence has been
consolidated over the years, marking its expansion into international
markets. In 1974, Holcim entered the Ecuadorian market through the
acquisition of the local cement company Lagfare, owner of the well-
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known Rocafuerte brand. Since then, through its commercial arm
"Disensa". According to Holcim Ecuador (2023), the company has
maintained an outstanding position in Ecuador, leading the cement
solutions market for more than 45 years, especially in the city of
Quevedo, a vital development pole in the province of Los Ríos.
However, despite its successful track record, 2023 has posed
unexpected challenges for Holcim Ecuador in Quevedo. A downward
trend in sales in the construction sector has emerged as a significant
concern. This phenomenon is largely attributed to a growing wave of
insecurity affecting the daily life of Quevedo. The current context is
characterized by a generalized sense of vulnerability, which not only
affects the peace of mind of individuals, but also casts shadows on the
economic stability of the region.
In this sense, this research aims to investigate in depth how citizen
insecurity directly and indirectly affects Holcim's sales in Quevedo.
The city, with a projected population of 180,000 inhabitants according
to INEC 2010, is immersed in a relatively informal construction
market due to the lack of an urban development plan. In addition, the
arrival of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 exacerbated the situation,
generating a deep economic crisis that, years later, translated into
problems of insecurity stemming from the lack of employment and
social work.
The intricate connection between citizen insecurity and commercial
transactions not only affects the perception of risk among individual
consumers, but also presents substantial challenges for entrepreneurs
seeking to maintain the viability and growth of their businesses in an
environment marked by uncertainty. In this context, Holcim has
experienced a significant decline in sales, largely attributed to the
insecurity that is driving away local and foreign investment.
This research was carried out in the urban area of the canton of
Quevedo, Los Ríos province, exploring how the perception of security
affects purchasing decisions, influences commercial strategies and
becomes a critical factor for economic activities. For such reason,
citizen security has diverse perspectives, which position it in a
multidimensional and multifactorial scenario; which, at the individual
level, can be understood from a human dimension as self-providing
personal security in the face of threats or violence (Páez, Peón &
Ramírez, 2018). The objective is to thoroughly assess the impact of
insecurity on Holcim Ecuador's sales in Quevedo, providing a
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comprehensive understanding of the economic challenges derived
from the current security crisis that Ecuador is going through.
Materials and Methods
The research was carried out in the Quevedo canton. This study adopts
an exploratory and descriptive approach, using as population the 8
people linked to the Holcim agency, including both administrative
personnel and distributors. See table 1.
Table 1. Administrative personnel - distributors, Canton Quevedo
2023
Area
Number
Administrator
1
Administrative
personnel
2
Distributors
5
Total
8
Source: Holcim Quevedo
Also in the research, a quantitative approach was adopted (Zamora,
2019) with the purpose of accurately measuring the variables
associated with the perception of Holcim Ecuador customers in
Quevedo and its impact on commercial activity. This approach was
considered appropriate given the need to quantify and objectively
analyze the experiences and opinions of the participants, specifically
customers and business managers in the region.
The data processing phase involves, according to Zamora (2019) the
use of guaranteed programs allows us to improve the teaching and
didactics of statistics and its application in favor of research without
incurring in piracy, to perform descriptive and comparative analysis.
With this quantitative approach ( Ascona & Mencia, 2023) , we seek
not only to understand the subjective perceptions of participants, but
also to systematically quantify and analyze the relationships between
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insecurity and commercial activity (Ortega & Pino, 2021). This robust
approach allows for informed conclusions and will provide valuable
insights to propose effective strategies to address the economic
challenges derived from the current situation in Quevedo. See Table 2.
Table 2. Perception of administrative personnel - distributors,
Canton Quevedo 2023
Ask
Reply
Analysis
Do you believe
that crime has
had an impact
on the drop in
sales?
Do you think
that insecurity
affects new
distributors?
Do you believe
that the
increase in
crime is
influencing the
closure of
points of sale?
Yes 100%
Yes
Yes 100%
Yes
Yes 100%
Yes
This suggests that all participants
perceive a connection between the
incidence of crime and declining sales.
This result could indicate a widespread
concern within the surveyed sample
about how crime may be negatively
affecting business performance, which
could have significant implications for
security and economic viability in the
specific area or context analyzed.
The question posed reveals a direct
relationship between the perception of
insecurity and its impact on the
participation of new distributors. In this
case, the answer "Yes" by 100% of the
respondents indicates unanimity in the
belief that insecurity negatively
influences the incorporation of new
distributors.
The question posed seeks to obtain the
perception of the respondents on the
possible influence of the increase in
crime on the closure of points of sale. The
response provided, with 100% of
respondents stating that they do believe
in this relationship, suggests a uniformity
of opinion among the participants.
Prepared by: Authors
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Similarly, this type of research is characterized as an exhaustive
analysis of the current state of knowledge. It focuses on the
integration, organization and critical evaluation of the theoretical and
empirical information available on a particular problem. Its focus can
be directed towards the advancement of current research and possible
ways to solve it. In addition, it may be oriented towards the analysis of
the internal and external consistency of theories and
conceptualizations, highlighting their weaknesses or demonstrating
the superiority of some over others, or addressing both aspects
simultaneously.
For the purposes of this study, the design proposed by Morales (2015)
was followed, which is composed of the following stages: a) Selection
and delimitation of the topic; b) Collection of information or data
sources; c) Organization of the data and development of a conceptual
scheme of the topic; d) Analysis of the data and structuring of the
document; and e) Writing of the research report. In the development
of this research, the following procedures were carried out:
Selection and delimitation of the topic: The research topic selected was
"Insecurity and sales: impact on Cemento Holcim, Quevedo". The
delimitations of the topic were defined, the problem and the aspects to
be considered were specified, and the objectives were constructed to
provide clarity on the scope of the research.
Collection of information or data sources: In this phase, a survey was
carried out to collect the necessary information in order to meet the
objectives set and thoroughly analyze the information collected.
Organization of the information and elaboration of a conceptual
scheme of the topic: A conceptual scheme was elaborated to
graphically represent the information gathered, allowing to follow a
logical structure of the elements presented during the research.
Information analysis and document organization: Each element
identified in the conceptual scheme was developed by analyzing
documents and synthesizing the most significant aspects. The
information was interpreted based on various authors to understand
and explain the nature of the problem.
Writing the research document or report and final presentation:
Finally, conclusions were drawn and the research report was
structured, giving shape to the findings and contributions derived
from the study.
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Information gathering techniques
To carry out the research, we used what was suggested by Hernández
& Duana (2020), who indicate that when conducting a research work,
it is necessary to consider the methods, techniques and instruments as
those elements that ensure the empirical fact of the research, where
the method represents the path to follow in the research.
Information Analysis Techniques
The data analysis phase involves subjecting the information collected
to various operations for the purpose of obtaining accurate
conclusions that contribute to the achievement of our objectives.
These operations cannot be defined in advance, as data collection may
reveal specific challenges that need to be addressed during the analysis
process. Furthermore, methodological mastery in data analysis is
important in research training (Sousa, Gondim, Carias, Batista, &
Machado, 2020).
Results
It is important to consider these findings when addressing strategies
to mitigate the adverse effects of crime in the business environment
and possibly implement additional security measures to protect both
businesses and consumers.
The results suggest that there is a strong perception within the
surveyed sample that insecurity, whether at the local or general level,
represents a significant obstacle to the expansion or incorporation of
new distributors. The homogeneity in responses reinforces the idea
that this concern is consistently shared among participants.
For a deeper understanding, it would be beneficial to explore in future
research the specific reasons behind this perception. This could
involve investigating the previous experiences of current distributors,
assessing the relationship between insecurity and distribution
logistics, or analyzing how existing security measures may not be
sufficient to mitigate concerns.
The uniform "Yes" response highlights the importance of addressing
insecurity as a critical factor that directly impacts the participation and
expansion of new distributors in the Holcim agency. This result may
indicate a strong concern or shared perception about the connection
between increased crime and outlet closures. However, it is important
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to keep in mind that accurate interpretation will also depend on the
context, the exact wording of the question and the diversity of the
sample surveyed. In addition, the possibility of response bias must be
considered, as respondents may have different perspectives based on
their individual experiences or subjective perceptions.
After conducting a detailed study on the relationship between crime
and Holcim's sales in Quevedo, several factors have been identified as
contributing to the company's declining sales. See Table 3.
Table 3. Sales revenue, years 2021 to October 2023
years
Sales
Growth/Decrease
Compared to
previous year
2021
$10.504.000,00
$ 10.504.000,00
100%
2022
$6.404.666,67
$-4.099.333.33
-39%
2023
$2.922.500.00
$-1.176.833,33
-29%
Source: Holcim Quevedo
Elaboration: By authors
Analysis of the data provided reveals a significant decrease in revenue
over the years 2022 and 2023 compared to the base year of 2021. Here
is a detailed assessment:
Year 2021:
- Revenues: $10,504,000.00
- Variation: $10,504,000.00 (100%)
- This year serves as the benchmark with a total income of 100%.
2. Year 2022:
- Revenues: $6,404,666.67
- Variation: -$4.099.333.33 (-39%)
- There was a significant decrease of 39% in revenues compared to
the previous year. The negative variance indicates a substantial
reduction in revenues, which is a cause for concern.
3. Year 2023:
- Revenues: $2,922,500.00
- Variation: -$1.176.833,33 (-29%)
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- In 2023, the downward trend persists with a negative variance of
44% compared to 2022. This further decline suggests a possible
continued downward trend in revenues.
Revenues have experienced a significant decrease in the last two years,
with a negative percentage change of 39% in 2022 and 29% in 2023.
This analysis allows us to observe the generalized perception of
insecurity that has generated a significant decrease in the influx of
customers to Holcim's points of sale. Consumers, concerned about
their safety, avoid visiting Holcim stores as often as they did
previously.
Business operations during nighttime hours have experienced a
substantial reduction due to customer concerns about safety. This has
particularly affected sales in night trading, an area that has historically
been important to Holcim.
Crime has generated distrust in construction sites where Holcim
products are used. Concerns about safety in these environments have
led to a decrease in demand for construction products.
The persistent situation of insecurity has negatively affected Holcim's
brand perception. The company's association with unsafe areas has led
to a loss of consumer confidence, affecting brand loyalty and brand
preference. These preliminary results underscore the complex
interconnection between insecurity and Holcim's sales in Quevedo.
See figure 1.
Figure 1. Correlation of sales revenues, years 2021 to October 2023
with delinquent acts in Quevedo.
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The graph indicates that declining revenues at Holcim are closely
linked to consumer perceptions of insecurity. Addressing this concern
and rebuilding consumer confidence are critical steps to restoring the
company's financial health. Revenues have experienced a significant
decline over the past two years, with a negative percentage change of
39% in 2022 and 29% in 2023. This trend indicates a clear decline in
Holcim's revenue generation over this period.
The decrease in revenue suggests a negative financial impact for
Holcim. The magnitude of the percentage change indicates the severity
of the financial situation, with a decline of 39% in 2022 and 29% in
2023. This significant drop may affect the company's profitability,
liquidity and investment capacity. The numerical data obtained are
also based on Table 4.
Table 4. Regression analysis
Regression statistics
Multiple correlation coefficient
0,617972397
Coefficient of determination R^2
0,381889884
R^2 adjusted
0,362573943
Standard error
3020,488524
Remarks
34
The multiple correlation coefficient is 0.617972397. This value is
between 0 and 1, suggesting a moderate positive correlation. The
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closer the value is to 1, the stronger the positive linear relationship
between the variables. In this context, it is suggested that there is a
moderate positive correlation between the variables in the multiple
regression model under analysis. Furthermore, the coefficient of
determination R2 is 0.381889884. This means that approximately
38.2% of the variability in the dependent variable can be explained by
the regression model. Although this is not a very high value, it does not
necessarily indicate a poor model fit. The specific interpretation
depends on the context of the problem and expectations in the field of
study. The adjusted R2 is 0.362573943. This means that the model
explains approximately 36.3% of the variability in the data after
considering the number of variables being used. The standard error of
3020.488524 indicates the expected amount of variation in the model
predictions. For a more accurate interpretation, it is crucial to consider
the scale of the data and the specific context of the problem.
Conclusions
The general perception of insecurity has led to a significant decrease
in the number of customers visiting Holcim's points of sale.
Consumers, concerned for their safety, avoid visiting Holcim stores as
often as they did previously.
Based on the information provided, it can be concluded that the entity
or business experienced a significant decrease in revenue during 2022
and 2023 compared to the base year of 2021. The negative variance of
39% in 2022 and 29% in 2023 suggests a continued downward trend
in financial performance.
This decline in revenues could indicate economic challenges or
difficulties that could affect the long-term stability and viability of the
business. The conclusion suggests the need to implement corrective or
strategic measures to reverse this negative trend, improve financial
health and ensure the long-term sustainability of the business. This
could include reviewing and adjusting business strategies, identifying
growth opportunities, and adopting measures to mitigate external
factors that could be affecting revenues.
Business operations during nighttime hours have experienced a
substantial reduction due to customer concerns about safety. This has
particularly affected sales in night trading, an area that has historically
been important to Holcim.
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Crime has generated distrust at construction sites where Holcim
products are used. Concerns about safety in these environments have
led to a decrease in demand for construction products.
The persistent situation of insecurity has negatively affected Holcim's
brand perception. The company's association with unsafe areas has led
to a loss of consumer confidence, affecting brand loyalty and brand
preference.
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